TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 6:45AM-7AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$422

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 6:45AM-7AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 6:45AM-7AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 7:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 6:45AM-7AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$557
$422
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T10:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T10:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 6:45AM and 7:00AM ET on October 29th. You’ll find a price history chart displaying how the probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the total volume traded in this market, currently at $422, and the 24-hour volume, which is $423. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and see how actively traders are participating in predicting the short-term direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts provide predictions about gold price fluctuations, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, allowing traders to express their beliefs with real capital. This can lead to divergences, as market participants may weigh factors differently than analysts. It’s common to see this market anticipate price movements before they are widely reported, or to demonstrate a higher degree of confidence in a particular outcome than traditional forecasts suggest.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:45 AM and 7:00 AM ET on October 29th. If the price is higher at 7:00 AM ET than at 6:45 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected political developments, can also drive price volatility. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, or major news concerning gold supply and demand, could all contribute to shifts in the odds. Any surprise announcements or breaking news related to these areas could quickly move this market.