TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$14

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 6:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$175
$14
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T22:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T22:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market provides a real-time view of how traders are pricing the likelihood of gold increasing or decreasing in value. You’ll find the current odds, a price history chart illustrating how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $14. The total volume traded to date is $14. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and participation in this particular prediction market.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict offers a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market represents a probability distribution of potential outcomes. It’s common to see divergences between expert opinions and the crowd’s assessment, particularly when anticipating short-term price movements. Examining these differences can be insightful, as prediction markets have demonstrated an ability to incorporate information and adapt quickly to new developments.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders react to news and information, creating a real-time assessment of expectations. This differs from traditional markets where prices are set by order books and market makers.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 6:30PM-6:45PM ET window on October 29th. A clear increase or decrease will determine the winning outcome of this market. The platform uses publicly available financial data to verify the result and ensure accurate settlement.

Several factors could significantly influence the gold price movement market. Key economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, are likely to cause volatility. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, often drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, any major news regarding global economic growth or currency fluctuations could impact trader sentiment and shift the odds in this market.