TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 4AM-4:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$352

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 4AM-4:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 4AM-4:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 4:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 4AM-4:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$58
$352
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T08:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T08:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 4AM and 4:15AM ET on October 29th. You'll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $351, and the total volume traded to date, which is $352. This provides a snapshot of market activity and sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts provide price targets and recommendations for gold, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals incentivized to accurately predict the short-term price movement. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market diverge from the consensus view, potentially identifying overlooked factors or anticipating shifts in market sentiment before they are reflected in mainstream analysis.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:00 AM and 4:15 AM Eastern Time on October 29th. If the price is higher at 4:15 AM than at 4:00 AM, the 'Up' outcome will prevail. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, changes in interest rate expectations or statements from central bank officials could influence investor sentiment. Finally, any surprising news related to major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could also impact trading activity in this market.