TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$260,393,102

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,894,304,386

408,643

Markets across

39,771

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,493

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$66

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 4:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$66
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T20:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T20:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $65, and the total volume traded to date, which is $66. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price change in gold. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how participants are forecasting the market’s direction.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are issuing reports on gold’s potential trajectory, this market represents the collective judgment of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the wisdom of the crowd, as represented by the odds on Predict. This difference can stem from varying assumptions, risk tolerances, or access to different information, offering a unique insight beyond standard financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. As more people buy contracts predicting an increase, the price of those contracts rises, and vice versa. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently aggregates this information, translating it into probabilities that reflect the collective expectation of the crowd. The current price of each contract indicates the implied probability of that outcome occurring by the resolution date.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:30 PM and 4:45 PM ET on October 29th. A verified increase in the gold price during that timeframe will result in a payout for those who predicted 'up,' while a decrease or no change will favor those who predicted 'down.' The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, could trigger substantial price movements. Any significant news related to global economic stability or risk aversion could cause substantial shifts in the odds on Predict.