TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$281

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 4:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$281
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T20:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T20:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart visualizing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $279, and the total volume traded to date, which is $281. This information provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of gold prices leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding gold’s near-term trajectory. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical instability and inflation concerns, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It's important to note that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of many individual traders, potentially capturing information and insights not always reflected in standard financial analysis. Examining these differences can offer a broader understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified time. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. Higher demand for 'up' contracts drives up their price, indicating a greater perceived likelihood of gold increasing in value, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:15 PM ET and 4:30 PM ET on October 29th. If the price is higher at 4:30 PM ET than at 4:15 PM ET, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'down' outcome will prevail. This determination will be based on publicly available data from established financial sources.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 29, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating conflicts or unexpected political developments, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in global risk appetite could lead to substantial movements in this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential price fluctuations.