TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

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$323,326,361

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2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$591

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 4:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$591
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T08:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T08:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 4:15 AM and 4:30 AM ET on October 29th. You can view the current odds, as well as a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, indicating how much activity there has been in this market recently. Currently, the total volume is $577.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Often, the market can anticipate events before they are reflected in analyst reports, or highlight areas where analysts disagree. Comparing this market to prevailing expert opinions can offer a valuable, alternative viewpoint on the potential price movement of gold.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of gold increasing in value during the specified timeframe. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'Gold Up' contracts will become, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 4:15 AM and 4:30 AM ET on October 29th. If the price is higher at 4:30 AM than at 4:15 AM, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Gold Down' outcome will be considered correct. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized and publicly available source for gold spot prices.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, such as interest rate changes or quantitative easing measures, can affect market sentiment. Any surprise news related to major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could also move this market.