TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$185,665,189

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,833,875,329

407,365

Markets across

40,470

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,365

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 3:45PM-4PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 3:45PM-4PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 3:45PM-4PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 4:00 PM EST

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Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 3:45PM-4PM ET

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Settled
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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T19:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T19:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll also find the total volume traded in this market, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of different outcomes for the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the informed opinions of a diverse group of traders. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when anticipating events influenced by unpredictable factors or sentiment shifts. It's common to see this market pricing in probabilities that diverge from the consensus view expressed in polls or by financial news outlets, offering a unique signal.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective wisdom of those participating in the market, and is constantly updated as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be determined by comparing the gold price at 3:45 PM - 4:00 PM ET on October 29th to the price at the start of the trading period. The direction of the price movement – whether it went up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from reliable financial data providers.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 29, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in global trade relations, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant currency fluctuations, particularly involving the US dollar, and changes in investor sentiment regarding risk appetite could all influence trading activity in this market.