TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2PM-2:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$82

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2PM-2:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2PM-2:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 2:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2PM-2:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$20
$82
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T18:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T18:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 2PM and 2:15PM ET on October 29th. It also displays the price history of the market, showing how probabilities have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $82, and the total volume traded to date, which is $82. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price action.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for gold’s price movement, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as analysts may be influenced by biases or specific models, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and perspectives. Comparing this market to prevailing analyst opinions can offer a valuable counterpoint to conventional thinking.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. These odds reflect the collective judgment of participants, and are constantly updated as new information becomes available. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence and agreement among traders regarding the likely outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 2:00 PM ET and 2:15 PM ET on October 29th. If the price increases during that window, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising news regarding central bank policies, particularly those related to interest rates or quantitative easing, could influence market sentiment and shift the odds. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential price movements.