TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2:45AM-3AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$278

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2:45AM-3AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2:45AM-3AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 3:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2:45AM-3AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$21
$278
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T06:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T06:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $273, and the total volume traded to date, which is $278. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of the gold price leading up to the resolution date. The dashboard is designed to give you a quick understanding of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing predictions about the future of gold, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market diverge from the consensus view, potentially offering a contrarian indicator. Examining these differences can provide a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the aggregated predictions of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the odds closely reflect the current sentiment of the crowd. The market's efficiency is driven by traders seeking to profit from correctly anticipating the outcome, creating a self-correcting system.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified time window – between 2:45AM and 3:00AM Eastern Time on October 29th. The direction of the price movement will determine whether the 'Up' or 'Down' outcome is considered correct. The outcome is determined by objective price data, not subjective interpretation.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 29, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant shifts in currency exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, can affect gold’s price. Unexpected news regarding gold mining production or central bank gold reserves could also move the market.