TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$127

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 2:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$42
$127
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T18:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T18:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value by Oct 29, 2026. You'll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $128. Total volume for this market is $127. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities based on the collective predictions of other participants on Predict.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing opinions on gold's trajectory, this market provides a quantifiable, real-money view of what traders believe will happen. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially offering a more dynamic and responsive indicator than static analyst reports. Examining these differences can be valuable for a comprehensive understanding of potential gold price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of gold increasing in value, with higher prices suggesting a stronger belief in an upward movement. Traders are constantly updating their assessments, creating a dynamic and efficient price discovery process.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:30 PM and 2:45 PM ET on October 29th. If the price increases during that window, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be verified. The precise price change will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 29, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, shifts in investor sentiment, influenced by news headlines or expert commentary, could lead to increased trading activity and price fluctuations in this market. Monitoring these signals is crucial for understanding potential market movements.