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410,833

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,069

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 2:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$20
$1,069
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T06:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T06:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the total volume traded – currently $1,069 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $1,058. This allows you to quickly gauge market sentiment and see how the probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, illustrating how the implied probabilities have changed.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and historical trends, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to unique insights. It's common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in mainstream financial analysis, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating implied probabilities. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds reflect the collective judgment of all participants actively trading in this market. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contract, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:30 AM and 2:45 AM ET on October 29th. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'down' outcome will win. The determination will rely on widely recognized financial data sources to ensure an objective and transparent result.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often drive gold price movements. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also create volatility. Furthermore, shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in interest rate expectations could impact investor sentiment towards gold. Any surprise news related to central bank activity or major gold-holding nations could also trigger substantial price fluctuations in this market.