TOTAL VOLUME:

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$323,326,361

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$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

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4,612

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5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$184

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 2:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$184
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T18:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T18:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $184, and the total volume traded to date, which is $184. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating and gauge market sentiment regarding the direction of the gold price. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the collective prediction.

Currently, analysts have varied opinions on the short-term trajectory of gold, with some predicting a slight increase due to geopolitical uncertainty and others forecasting a decline based on strengthening economic indicators. This market provides a different perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd. While analyst forecasts represent individual opinions, the odds on Predict reflect the collective belief of many traders, potentially offering a more accurate signal of what will actually happen. It's a fascinating comparison of expert opinion versus distributed prediction.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the evolving consensus of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price essentially represents the probability that traders assign to each outcome, with higher prices indicating a greater likelihood of that outcome occurring. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:15 PM and 2:30 PM ET on October 29th. If the price is higher at 2:30 PM ET than at 2:15 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be declared the winner. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could shift investor sentiment towards gold as a safe haven or away from it. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or unexpected policy changes, often drive demand for gold. Also, major news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could impact the gold price. Any significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength could also move this market, as gold is often priced in dollars.