TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 1PM-1:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$499

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 1PM-1:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 1PM-1:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 1:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 1PM-1:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$145
$499
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T17:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T17:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1PM and 1:15PM ET on October 29th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $497, and total volume traded to date, which is $499. This allows you to gauge market interest and activity in this specific prediction market.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or directional opinions on gold’s price movement, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of informed opinions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially outpacing the speed of traditional analysis and providing a real-time assessment of probabilities.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately determining the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a highly liquid and efficient market for forecasting gold’s short-term price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1PM and 1:15PM ET on October 29th. If the price increases during that window, the ‘Up’ outcome will win. Conversely, if the price decreases, the ‘Down’ outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, are closely watched by traders. Any surprise announcements or shifts in market sentiment related to these factors could lead to substantial movement in this market.