TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 1:45AM-2AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$598

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 1:45AM-2AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 1:45AM-2AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 2:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 1:45AM-2AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$598
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T05:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T05:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $597, and the total overall volume for this market, which stands at $598. This provides a clear picture of how traders are positioning themselves and the intensity of activity surrounding potential gold price fluctuations. The dashboard is updated frequently to reflect the latest market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different outlook than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are projecting a continued upward trend for gold due to global economic uncertainty, this market’s participants are expressing a more nuanced view. This divergence can be attributed to the wisdom of the crowd effect, where the collective judgment of many individuals can sometimes outperform expert opinions. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are based on models and assumptions, while this market represents real-time betting behavior.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:45 AM and 2:00 AM Eastern Time on October 29, 2026. If the price is higher at 2:00 AM than at 1:45 AM, the ‘Up’ outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will be declared the winner. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often have a strong influence on gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating international conflicts or unexpected political instability, could also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected shifts in currency exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, and changes in global risk appetite are further catalysts to watch. Any significant news related to gold mining production or central bank gold reserves could also move this market.