TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$292

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 1:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$292
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T17:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T17:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1:30PM and 1:45PM ET on October 29th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $293. Total volume for this market is $292. This information allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer opinions based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouths are. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, risk tolerance, or access to unique information. It’s common to see this market diverge from the prevailing sentiment expressed in polls or by financial news outlets, offering a potentially valuable contrarian signal.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s assessment of the likelihood of an upward price movement within the specified timeframe. Traders can see the best available buy and sell prices on the dashboard.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:30PM and 1:45PM ET on October 29th. If the price increases during that period, the ‘Up’ outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the ‘Down’ outcome will be correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive investment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, or significant movements in the US dollar, could all contribute to price volatility and shift the odds in this market. Keep an eye on these developments for potential trading opportunities.