TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$874

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 1:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$874
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T05:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T05:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the price history of the market as it evolves. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $807, and the total volume traded to date, which is $874. This provides a real-time overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price movement.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and potential inside information. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly in rapidly evolving situations. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional analysis, providing a broader view of possible outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, constantly adjusting as new information becomes available and traders update their positions. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to changing conditions.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 1:30AM-1:45AM ET window on October 29th. Whether the price increases or decreases will determine which outcome is considered correct. The platform will verify the final price against established financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution process.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political shifts, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising news regarding major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in global currency valuations could influence trading activity in this market, causing the odds to shift as traders react to new information.