TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 29, 12PM-12:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$528

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 12PM-12:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 12PM-12:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 12:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 12PM-12:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$4
$528
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T16:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T16:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 12PM and 12:15PM ET on October 29th. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $527, and the total volume traded to date, which is $528. This provides a comprehensive overview of market sentiment.

Currently, it’s difficult to draw direct comparisons between the probabilities reflected in this market and traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts offer predictions about gold price movements, their methodologies and time horizons often differ significantly from those represented in this market. This market focuses on a very short-term window – a 15-minute period – and aggregates the wisdom of many traders, potentially offering a unique perspective compared to individual analyst opinions. It’s important to consider the differing approaches when interpreting both sources of information.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by new information, trading activity, and shifts in overall market sentiment. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, which in turn influences the odds and the implied probability of each outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 12PM and 12:15PM ET on October 29th. If the price is higher at 12:15PM ET than at 12PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will prevail. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final determination will rely on widely available financial data sources.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like shifts in international relations or unexpected political announcements, can also create volatility. Even statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy could move the market. Finally, significant trading volume in gold futures or physical gold markets could also influence the probabilities reflected in this market, as traders react to new information and adjust their positions.