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420,493

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,359

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 12:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$21
$1,359
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T04:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T04:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,347, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,359. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving leading up to the event. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest market activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide price targets based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of economic indicators, geopolitical events, or simply varying levels of risk appetite. It’s common to see this market anticipating moves before they are widely recognized by conventional financial commentary, or conversely, discounting forecasts that appear overly optimistic or pessimistic.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to Oct 29, 2026, the more responsive the price will be to new information and trading activity. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new data and reflect changing expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 12:30AM-12:45AM ET time window on October 29th. If the price is higher at 12:45AM ET than at 12:30AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often trigger volatility in gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive investor sentiment. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or the strength of the US dollar can impact gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Any surprise announcements from central banks or major gold-producing nations could also lead to substantial price movements and shifts in this market.