TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 11PM-11:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$768

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 11PM-11:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 11PM-11:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 11:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 11PM-11:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$768
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T03:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T03:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold to move up or down, along with a price history showing how these probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $755, and the total volume traded to date, which is $768. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of different outcomes for this event. The dashboard helps visualize market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for gold price movements, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, representing a probability distribution of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments. This market, in particular, provides a unique view beyond standard financial predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current prices indicate the market's assessment of the likelihood of each scenario, and traders can adjust their positions as new information becomes available. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market remains responsive to changing conditions.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:00 PM ET and 11:15 PM ET on October 29th. The direction of the price movement – up or down – will determine the winning outcome of this market. Traders will be able to see the final result and any relevant supporting data shortly after the specified time.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or major political announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards gold as a safe haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could impact the gold price movement and therefore shift the probabilities reflected in this market.