TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 11:45AM-12PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,218

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 11:45AM-12PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 11:45AM-12PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 12:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 11:45AM-12PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$11
$1,218
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T15:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T15:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, along with the total volume traded—currently at $1,218—and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $1,217. This provides a real-time overview of market sentiment and activity. The dashboard also displays the implied probabilities, offering insight into how traders perceive the likelihood of each outcome.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts may offer predictions based on economic indicators and historical trends, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, unforeseen events, or simply the collective intuition of traders participating in this market. It’s common to see shifts in market odds as new information becomes available, potentially leading or lagging behind conventional expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective expectations of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to a price increase, with the remaining probability implied for a price decrease. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price movements throughout the trading period.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:45 AM ET and 12:00 PM ET on October 29th. An increase in price during that window will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up,' while a decrease or no change will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Down.' The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rates or monetary policy by central banks can influence investor sentiment and affect the gold price. Even major news regarding large gold-holding nations or significant shifts in currency valuations could create volatility in this market.