TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,436

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 11:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$73
$1,436
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T15:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T15:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 11:30 AM and 11:45 AM ET on October 29th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,438. The total volume for this market is $1,436, indicating overall interest. This information helps traders assess market sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of information and potential influences. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly in the short term. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly translating into implied probabilities. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 11:30 AM and 11:45 AM ET on October 29th. If the price is higher at 11:45 AM than at 11:30 AM, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in interest rate expectations could sway investor sentiment. Any surprise announcements from central banks or major gold-holding nations could also trigger substantial price movements in this market.