TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$239

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 11:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$175
$239
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T03:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T03:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart visualizing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $213, and the total volume traded to date, which is $239. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price change of gold. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of economic data, geopolitical events, or simply varying risk appetites. It’s common to see this market anticipate price movements before they are widely recognized by conventional financial analysts, or to disagree with the consensus view.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants and adjusts dynamically as new information becomes available. This mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive valuation of the potential gold price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 11:15 PM ET and 11:30 PM ET on October 29th. If the price is higher at 11:30 PM ET than at 11:15 PM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will prevail; otherwise, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often trigger substantial price movements in gold. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political shifts, also tend to drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, significant changes in the US dollar’s strength or major central bank policies could influence the gold price and, consequently, the trading activity in this market.