TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10AM-10:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,512

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10AM-10:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10AM-10:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 10:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Liquidity
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10AM-10:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$3
$1,512
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T14:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T14:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced the event over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,497. The total volume traded to date is $1,512, providing insight into overall market interest. This information allows traders to gauge sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges for gold price movements, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially leading to divergences from initial analyst predictions. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market sentiment.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by traders reacting to news, economic data, and other factors influencing gold prices, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of potential price changes.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM ET on October 29th. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up,' while a price decrease will favor those who predicted 'Down.' The final price change will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 29, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or GDP figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political developments or international conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, are closely watched by gold traders. Any surprise announcements or shifts in market sentiment related to these factors could cause substantial price fluctuations in this market.