TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10:45PM-11PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$82

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10:45PM-11PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10:45PM-11PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 11:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10:45PM-11PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$82
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T02:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T02:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 10:45 PM and 11:00 PM ET on October 29th. It also provides a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market – currently $82 – and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $82. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price action of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental economic indicators and geopolitical events to predict gold's price movement, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many individual traders. This can lead to divergences, as traders incorporate a wider range of information and subjective factors into their predictions. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in mainstream financial analysis, or to assign different probabilities to various outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will be up or down during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the odds closely track the evolving expectations of market participants, providing a real-time assessment of potential gold price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:45 PM and 11:00 PM ET on October 29th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or surprise political developments, are also major catalysts. Furthermore, shifts in US dollar strength or changes in interest rate expectations can influence investor sentiment towards gold. Any news related to major gold-holding countries or significant trading activity could also drive price fluctuations and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.