TOTAL VOLUME:

$155.3b

24H VOL:

$358,270,487

24H TRANSACTIONS:

3,002,125,488

OPEN INTEREST:

$2,041,693,191

423,163

Markets across

39,982

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,387

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-11AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$336

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-11AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-11AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 11:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-11AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$871
$336
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T14:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T14:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $336. The total volume traded to date is $336. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the anticipated direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to economic uncertainty, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on models and subjective interpretations, whereas this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. The comparison highlights how prediction markets can offer a unique, real-time assessment of potential outcomes.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:45 AM and 11:00 AM ET on October 29th. If the price at 11:00 AM ET is higher than at 10:45 AM ET, the 'up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will win. The precise price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant shifts in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve could influence the market. Traders will be closely watching these signals, and any surprising developments are likely to cause rapid adjustments in the odds for this market.