TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$36

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 10:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$36
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T02:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T02:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 10:15PM and 10:30PM ET on October 29th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the current 24-hour trading volume. While current volume is unknown, the dashboard provides a clear visualization of market sentiment. This allows traders to quickly assess the collective wisdom of the crowd and make informed decisions about their predictions.

Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the beliefs of a diverse group of traders, potentially incorporating information not readily available to analysts. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially when dealing with events subject to unpredictable factors. This market can provide a valuable, alternative viewpoint compared to standard financial predictions, offering a real-time assessment of probability.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in whether the gold price will go up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective opinion of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability of the outcome as perceived by the market, and is constantly updated as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions. Volume is currently unknown.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:15 PM and 10:30 PM ET on October 29th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Gold Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could shift investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any surprising announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could impact the gold price. Major news related to gold mining companies or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could also move this market.