TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,288

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 10:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$557
$2,288
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T14:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T14:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in price between 10:15AM and 10:30AM ET on October 29th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, as well as a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time. The 24-hour volume is also displayed, indicating how much trading activity has occurred in the last day. Currently, the total volume for this market is $2,288 and the 24-hour volume is $2,305.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or directional opinions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of the future. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and are continuously updated based on new data and sentiment. This allows for a dynamic assessment of potential outcomes that may not be immediately captured in static analyst reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately determining the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and can shift rapidly in response to news or changing sentiment. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations regarding the gold price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:15AM and 10:30AM ET on October 29th. If the price increases during that timeframe, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases or remains the same, the 'Down' outcome will win. The final determination will be based on data from a reputable financial source.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy could influence investor sentiment. Any news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in global risk appetite could also cause substantial movement in this market.