TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 9PM-9:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$219

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 9PM-9:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 9PM-9:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 9:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 9PM-9:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$20
$219
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T01:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T01:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 9PM and 9:15PM ET on October 28th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the market’s price history and 24-hour trading volume, currently at $218. The total volume for this market is $219. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and potential trading opportunities related to short-term gold price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical uncertainty, this market’s participants are expressing a more nuanced view. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on fundamental analysis and long-term projections, whereas this market focuses on a very specific, short-term price movement. Discrepancies can arise from differing time horizons and the incorporation of diverse information sources within the prediction market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds are constantly updated as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions, offering a real-time assessment of potential price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9PM and 9:15PM ET on October 28th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the winner. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or surprise political developments, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, any major news regarding central bank policies, particularly those related to interest rates, could impact the gold price. Even significant trading volume in gold futures contracts could create momentum and shift the odds in this market.