TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 9AM-9:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$942

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 9AM-9:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 9AM-9:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 9:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 9AM-9:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$36
$942
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T13:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T13:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 9:00 AM and 9:15 AM ET on October 28th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $936, and the total volume traded to date, which is $942. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding this short-term price prediction.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide price targets based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing what traders believe will *actually* happen in the short term. It's common to see discrepancies, especially when unexpected events or sentiment shifts occur. This market allows you to see where the collective prediction diverges from conventional wisdom, offering a unique signal about potential price movements. Comparing this to external forecasts can be a valuable exercise for informed decision-making.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts will climb, and vice-versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market odds are constantly updated to reflect the latest information and sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:00 AM and 9:15 AM ET on October 28th. If the price is higher at 9:15 AM than at 9:00 AM, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct. The precise price data used for verification will come from established financial data sources.

Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to the resolution time. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, can impact investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or surprise announcements, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Even comments from central bank officials regarding monetary policy could trigger price movements. Additionally, large institutional trades or sudden shifts in currency valuations could also affect the gold price and, consequently, the odds in this market.