TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 9:45PM-10PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$312

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 9:45PM-10PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 9:45PM-10PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 10:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 9:45PM-10PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$21
$312
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T01:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T01:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of trader sentiment, the price history showing how probabilities have shifted, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $309. The total volume for this market is $312. This information helps you understand where other traders are placing their bets and how the market is reacting to news and events.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast based on the wisdom of the crowd. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which can be influenced by individual biases or firm positions. While analysts may offer specific price targets, this market represents a probabilistic view of whether the price will be up or down at the close. It's important to remember that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses, and this market provides a unique perspective on potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the future direction of the gold price. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectation of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market believes gold will be up at the specified time. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations accordingly.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether the gold price, as reported by a major financial index, is higher or lower than its value at 9:45 PM ET on October 28th. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their prediction aligned with the final price movement. The outcome is determined by the change in price during the specified period.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe haven asset. Additionally, any major news regarding central bank policies, particularly those related to interest rates, could trigger substantial price movements. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in this market.