TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$998

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 9:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$4
$998
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T13:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T13:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probability of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 9:30AM and 9:45AM ET on October 28th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $997. Total volume for this market is $998. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical uncertainty, this market suggests a more cautious view, with a significant portion of traders anticipating a downward movement within the specified timeframe. It’s important to note that analysts often rely on fundamental economic indicators, whereas this market incorporates a wider range of information and collective intelligence from diverse participants.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probability you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:30AM and 9:45AM ET on October 28th. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' contracts will pay out; if it decreases, the 'down' contracts will pay out. The precise price change will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investor sentiment. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger a shift in trading activity within this market. A sudden shift in risk appetite amongst investors could also play a role.