TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$737

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 8:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$737
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T00:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T00:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $703, and the total volume traded to date, which is $737. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the anticipated direction of the gold price during the specified timeframe. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are positioning themselves.

Currently, the prediction market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are offering varied predictions based on macroeconomic factors, this market reflects the collective judgment of individuals directly incentivized to make accurate predictions. Discrepancies between the market’s implied probability and analyst opinions often arise from differing interpretations of data or the inclusion of non-public information by market participants. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often point estimates, while this market provides a probabilistic view of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating odds that reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. These odds are dynamic and change as new information becomes available or as traders adjust their positions. The current implied probability of either outcome is determined by the relative prices of the 'up' and 'down' contracts.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 8:30 PM and 8:45 PM Eastern Time on October 28th. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases, the 'down' outcome will be correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, shifts in monetary policy by central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, and fluctuations in the US dollar's strength are key drivers. Any surprise announcements related to these areas could lead to substantial movement in the gold price and, consequently, in this market.