TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$958

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 8:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$958
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T00:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T00:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 8:15 PM and 8:30 PM ET on October 28th. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $903, and the total market volume, which is $958. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders on Predict, and may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are predicting continued volatility in precious metals due to global economic uncertainty, this market represents a real-time assessment of probabilities as perceived by those with skin in the game. Comparing this market’s implied probabilities to those offered by financial news outlets and expert opinions can reveal interesting divergences and potential opportunities for informed trading.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the price of gold will go up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by new information, trading activity, and shifts in overall market sentiment, creating a dynamic and responsive indicator of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 8:15 PM and 8:30 PM ET on October 28th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or GDP growth numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements from central banks, could also trigger substantial price swings. Furthermore, any surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets could influence trading activity in this market and alter the perceived probabilities of an upward or downward price movement.