TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 7:45PM-8PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$217

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 7:45PM-8PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 7:45PM-8PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 8:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 7:45PM-8PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$20
$217
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T23:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T23:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $216, and the total volume traded to date, which is $217. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of the gold price before Oct 29, 2026. The dashboard is designed to give you a quick snapshot of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing predictions about gold’s trajectory, this market allows traders to express their beliefs directly through their buy and sell decisions. This can lead to divergences, as the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ may weigh different factors than those emphasized in typical reports. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in mainstream financial commentary, offering a potentially leading indicator.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. This dynamic pricing allows for a highly responsive and efficient market for forecasting gold’s movement.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between the opening price at 7:45 PM ET and the closing price at 8:00 PM ET on October 28th. If the closing price is higher than the opening price, the ‘Up’ outcome will be considered correct; if it’s lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will prevail. The final price data will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, and any surprising news related to major gold-holding nations, could all influence trader sentiment and cause substantial price fluctuations in this market.