TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-8AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,357

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-8AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-8AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 8:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-8AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$1,357
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T11:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T11:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 7:45 AM and 8:00 AM ET on October 28th. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,359. The total volume traded to date is $1,357, providing insight into overall market interest. This information helps you understand where traders are placing their bets on the short-term direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of whether gold will move up or down during the specified timeframe. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which are often based on fundamental or technical analysis. While analysts may issue buy or sell recommendations, this market represents a direct, incentivized prediction of the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as the market incorporates a wider range of information and is constantly updated by traders’ actions. The question is whether the wisdom of the crowd, as expressed in this market, will prove more accurate than expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the gold price movement. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will go up, the higher the price of the 'up' contract, and vice-versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the odds closely mirror the prevailing sentiment of those actively trading in the market. It’s a real-time assessment of probability, driven by individual traders’ insights and risk tolerance.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:45 AM and 8:00 AM ET on October 28th. If the price is higher at 8:00 AM ET than at 7:45 AM ET, the 'up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will win. The result will be determined by a widely recognized and publicly available source for gold prices, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution process.

Several factors could significantly impact the gold price movement market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger price fluctuations. Even significant trading volume in futures markets or large purchases by institutional investors could move this market before Oct 28, 2026.