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420,368

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,215

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 7:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$170
$1,215
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T11:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T11:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. It displays the odds as they shift with trading activity, along with the total volume traded – currently $1,215 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $1,219. You can also view a price history chart showing how the market has priced in different outcomes over time. This provides a real-time view of what traders believe about the short-term direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts may provide price targets and directional opinions on gold, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a collective prediction based on actual money at stake. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. If analysts are overwhelmingly bullish, but volume in this market suggests a more cautious outlook, it could indicate a divergence in sentiment worth noting.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contract, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are always a real-time representation of trader sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:30 AM ET and 7:45 AM ET on October 28th. If the price is higher at 7:45 AM ET than at 7:30 AM ET, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct. The exact price source will be determined by Predict’s standard procedures.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any significant shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in interest rate expectations could move this market. Finally, major news regarding central bank gold purchases or sales would likely have a substantial effect on the perceived probabilities.