TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 6PM-6:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$380

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 6PM-6:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 6PM-6:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 6:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 6PM-6:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$380
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T22:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T22:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $373, and the total volume traded to date, which is $380. This provides a clear visualization of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price fluctuations of gold. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting a continued upward trend in gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainty, this market indicates a more nuanced view. It's common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of many individual traders, potentially incorporating information and perspectives not fully captured in standard analyst reports. This difference highlights the unique insights offered by a forecasting tool like this.

On Predict, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified time window. As more traders buy 'up' contracts, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the collective intelligence of the traders on Predict. This creates a dynamic pricing system that adapts to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 6:00 PM ET and 6:15 PM ET on October 28th. If the price is higher at 6:15 PM ET than it was at 6:00 PM ET, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely-recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating conflicts or unexpected political developments, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in global risk appetite could move this market. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries or large institutional investments in gold could also play a role.