TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,104

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 6:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$54
$1,104
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T10:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T10:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,105, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,104. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated gold price movement.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and geopolitical events to predict gold price movements, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. This means the probabilities seen here are based on the collective judgment of many individual traders, potentially incorporating information and insights not readily available to analysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the inherent biases present in both approaches, offering a unique comparison point for evaluating potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the ‘up’ contracts will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market odds are constantly updated to reflect the latest information and sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:30 AM ET and 6:45 AM ET on October 28th. If the price is higher at 6:45 AM ET than at 6:30 AM ET, the ‘up’ outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘down’ outcome will win. The precise price data will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds to ensure transparency and accuracy.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or currency fluctuations could play a role. Any surprise announcements from central banks or major financial institutions could also trigger substantial movement in this market.