TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 28, 5PM-5:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$200

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 5PM-5:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 5PM-5:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 5:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 5PM-5:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$11
$200
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T21:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T21:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has priced the outcome over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $200, and the total volume traded to date, which is $200. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the future price of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are offering predictions on the direction of gold, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, allowing traders to express their beliefs with real capital. This can lead to divergences, as market participants weigh different factors and react to information in real-time. It’s common to see this market anticipating moves before they are reflected in mainstream analyst opinions, or conversely, discounting narratives that are heavily promoted in the media.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of the market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to the gold price increasing, with the remaining probability assigned to a decrease. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:00 PM and 5:15 PM Eastern Time on October 28th. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that 15-minute window, and that determination will be verified against credible public sources. Traders will then be paid out based on their positions in the market.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant news related to major gold-producing countries or large institutional investors could influence market sentiment and cause fluctuations in the odds for this market.