TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

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2,984,028,936

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$1,869,293,526

411,051

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4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T09:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T09:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. It displays the implied probabilities for each outcome, along with the total volume traded – currently $702 – and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $702. You can also view a price history chart to see how the market has fluctuated over time. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on the direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of the potential for gold price movement. These odds often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, as they represent a weighted average of opinions from a diverse group of traders. While analysts may focus on fundamental factors like interest rates and inflation, this market incorporates a broader range of information and sentiment. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when unexpected events introduce uncertainty into the market, offering a unique perspective beyond standard financial predictions.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:15 AM and 5:30 AM Eastern Time on October 28th. The direction of the price movement – whether it increases or decreases – will determine which outcome is considered correct. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, are key catalysts. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or trade tensions, often drive gold prices. Additionally, major news related to currency fluctuations, particularly the US dollar, can have a substantial impact. Any surprise announcements from major gold-holding nations or significant changes in investor sentiment could also move this market considerably.