TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 28, 4:45PM-5PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,021

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 4:45PM-5PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 4:45PM-5PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 5:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 4:45PM-5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1
$1,021
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T20:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T20:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value, displayed as odds. You'll also find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $995. The total volume for this market is $1,021. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating and how sentiment is changing leading up to the resolution date.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market provides a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are predicting a continued upward trend for gold, this market reflects a more nuanced view, with a significant portion of traders betting on a downward movement. It's important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on economic models and reports, while this market represents real-money opinions and incorporates a broader range of information and potential catalysts. This divergence highlights the value of considering diverse viewpoints when evaluating potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of 'up' contracts will become, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the aggregated predictions of all participants.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:45 PM ET and 5:00 PM ET on October 28th. If the price is higher at 5:00 PM ET than at 4:45 PM ET, the 'up' outcome will win; if it’s lower, the 'down' outcome will win. The precise price source used for verification will be determined by the platform’s standard procedures.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or unexpected political developments, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe haven asset. Furthermore, major announcements from central banks regarding interest rate policies could impact the market. Finally, any significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength could also influence trading activity in this market.