TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$626

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 4:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$20
$626
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T20:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T20:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, alongside a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $626, and the total volume traded to date, which is $626. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price action of gold. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are offering predictions about gold’s future performance, this market allows traders to express their beliefs through actual wagers. This can lead to a more accurate, real-time assessment of potential price movements, as it incorporates a wider range of information and perspectives than a single analyst report. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information, making this market a valuable counterpoint to conventional wisdom.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:30 PM ET and 4:45 PM ET on October 28th. If the price increases during that window, the 'Up' outcome will win. If the price decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will win. The resolution will be determined by publicly available price data from a recognized financial exchange.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or GDP figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected political instability or shifts in global trade relations, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe haven asset. Additionally, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, can influence the market. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries or significant changes in currency exchange rates could also play a role.