TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,672

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 4:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$58
$1,672
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T08:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T08:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified time window. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the market’s price history and 24-hour volume, currently at $1,663. This allows you to quickly assess the perceived probability of each outcome and how trading activity is evolving. The total volume traded on this market is $1,672, offering insight into overall interest.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and historical trends, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and anticipating potential surprises. It's common to see discrepancies, especially during periods of high uncertainty or when unexpected events occur. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential blind spots in conventional analysis, offering a unique view beyond standard expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price effectively represents the probability of the 'up' outcome, with the 'down' outcome being the complement. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to reflect new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:30 AM and 4:45 AM ET on October 28th. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'up,' while a decrease will favor those who predicted 'down.' The precise price change will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure a fair and transparent result.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or GDP growth, can impact investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, major announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy, such as interest rate changes, could trigger price movements. Any significant news related to global economic stability or risk aversion is likely to affect trading activity in this market.