TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$640

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 4:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$12
$640
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T20:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T20:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $645, and the total volume traded to date, which is $640. This provides a clear visualization of market sentiment and activity related to the anticipated direction of the gold price. The dashboard is regularly updated to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing predictions about gold's trajectory, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market diverge from consensus analyst expectations, particularly when anticipating short-term price fluctuations or reacting to unexpected events. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 15-minute window – 4:15 PM to 4:30 PM ET on October 28th. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up', while a decrease will favor those who predicted 'Down'. The exact price change will be verified against reliable financial data sources.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 28, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political developments or international conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, are closely watched by investors. Even unexpected news related to major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could move this market.