TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 3PM-3:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,136

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 3PM-3:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 3PM-3:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 3:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 3PM-3:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,136
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T19:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T19:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value by the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart illustrating how the market has priced the outcome over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $1,101. Total volume for this market is $1,136. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the future direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts provide price targets and recommendations, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate factors not always considered in standard financial analysis. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional forecasting.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the gold price increasing, with traders adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to changing conditions.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:00 PM ET and 3:15 PM ET on October 28th. The direction of the price change will determine whether the 'Up' or 'Down' outcome is declared, and all outstanding contracts will be settled accordingly. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the result.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any major announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy, like interest rate changes, could trigger substantial price movements. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in this market.