TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 3:45PM-4PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,085

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 3:45PM-4PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 3:45PM-4PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 4:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 3:45PM-4PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$20
$1,085
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T19:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T19:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,064. The total volume traded to date is $1,085. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to the anticipated direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing forecasts for gold prices, this market allows traders to express their beliefs about price movement directly, aggregating a 'wisdom of the crowd' perspective. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. If analysts predict a strong upward trend, but this market shows more uncertainty, it suggests traders may be factoring in risks not fully captured in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of an increase in the gold price. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe, from 3:45 PM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time on October 28th. The market will determine whether the price increased or decreased during that period, and payouts will be awarded accordingly to those who correctly predicted the direction of the price movement.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international tensions or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks could influence investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Any major news related to global economic stability or currency fluctuations could also play a role.