TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$446

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 3:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$20
$446
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T19:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T19:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 3:15PM and 3:30PM ET on October 28th. You'll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $441. The total volume for this market is $446, reflecting overall trader interest. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or directional predictions based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of perspectives and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions about economic indicators, geopolitical events, or unexpected news releases influencing the gold price. It’s valuable to consider both viewpoints when forming your own opinion about the potential price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their assessments of the likely price movement, creating a real-time forecast.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:15 PM and 3:30 PM ET on October 28th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including political instability or trade disputes, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates or quantitative easing, could influence the market. Keep an eye on these factors as they develop leading up to Oct 28, 2026.