TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$245,601,049

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,897,405,322

408,349

Markets across

39,583

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,443

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$653

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 3:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$45
$653
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T07:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T07:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. It also provides a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $659. The overall volume for this market is $653, indicating the total amount of money wagered. This information allows traders to gauge market sentiment and track the evolving expectations surrounding gold's short-term price action.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts provide price targets and directional predictions for gold, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate movements before they are widely reported by analysts, or to offer a contrarian view when analysts are largely in agreement. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:15 AM and 3:30 AM Eastern Time on October 28th. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases, the 'down' outcome will be correct. The precise price change will be verified against credible public sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices as they affect interest rate expectations and the dollar's strength. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding quantitative easing or interest rate adjustments, could trigger substantial price movements and shift the probabilities reflected in this market.