TOTAL VOLUME:

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$1,885,293,300

410,482

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4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 2PM-2:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,397

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 2PM-2:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 2PM-2:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 2:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 2PM-2:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$1,397
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T18:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T18:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 2 PM and 2:15 PM ET on October 28th. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,399, and the total market volume, which is $1,397. This provides a comprehensive view of how traders are positioning themselves on the anticipated direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts provide price targets and recommendations for gold, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. If analysts are largely bullish on gold, but this market shows a more cautious outlook, it suggests traders perceive factors not fully captured in conventional analysis. It’s a fascinating comparison of expert opinion versus crowd-sourced prediction.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly translating into the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who buy 'gold up' contracts, the higher the price of those contracts and the greater the implied probability of an increase. Conversely, increased selling pressure on 'gold up' contracts lowers the price and probability.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 2:00 PM and 2:15 PM ET on October 28th. If the price is higher at 2:15 PM than at 2:00 PM, the ‘gold up’ outcome will be considered correct. If the price is lower, the ‘gold down’ outcome will be correct. The exact price source used for verification will be determined by Predict’s resolution process.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, shifts in interest rate expectations or changes in the US dollar's strength could play a role. Any surprise news related to major gold-holding countries or significant movements in the stock market could also move this market substantially.