TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$758

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 2:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$438
$758
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T18:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T18:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 2:30PM and 2:45PM ET on October 28th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $763. The total volume for this market is $758. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to short-term gold price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast of where the gold price will be at the specified time. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which are often based on individual models and biases. While analysts may offer predictions about gold's future performance, this market represents a wisdom-of-the-crowd approach, aggregating the insights of many traders. It’s important to remember that both prediction markets and analyst forecasts are subject to uncertainty and can be influenced by unforeseen events.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of gold increasing in value during the specified timeframe, with higher prices suggesting a stronger belief in an upward movement. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:30PM and 2:45PM ET on October 28th. If the price increases during that period, the ‘up’ outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains flat, the ‘down’ outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including political instability or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or the strength of the US dollar could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Any surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in global risk appetite could also cause substantial price movements in this market.